Tariffs And Trump

Nothing has really changed in the Fed’s liquidity operations through its T-bill purchases, and that continues to support risk. However, in the absence of the highly anticipated improvement in US manufacturing, and a market that was long of risk and incredibly short volatility – the fact, then, that Trump seemingly got out of the wrong […]

Weekly Round Up – Look To Flying NZD

It’s a good day to be long the NZD and the bird has found its mojo, flying high against all major currencies, notably vs the CAD (NZDCAD +1.4%). NZDUSD was well traded as price smashed through the 0.6450 ceiling, pushing to the highest levels since 7 August. The combination of a solid rise in NZ […]

GBP Traders Sense Large Con Majority

As election fever hits the UK our flow in GBP, and to a lesser extent UK100, has certainly perked up, and so has the love for UK assets, where GBP is finding buyers easy to come from market participants. I flag several set-ups below, but I guess the question now is whether to chase the […]

Unfolding Dynamics In Australia

Before I go into the unfolding dynamics in Australia, USDJPY is also on the radar – The market is gearing up for Monday’s (15:00 UK time) all-important US manufacturing ISM report (consensus 49.4 from 48.3), at a time when global equities are on fire, which, in turn is supporting USDJPY. Should we see US manufacturing head […]

Liquidity And Faith In Central Banks

As a market participant intently focused on global equity indices, the idea of a seasonal ‘melt-up’ into the new year is playing out beautifully. While we should respect price above all else, as a macro-discretionary guy, I am always keen to know why something is going from A to B, so I can focus on […]

Broad Reflections On The Week

We close out the week on what is cold winter morning here in London, with the focus here falling on price action in the EUR and EU indices, with ECB head Lagarde speaking shortly. Based on this already released statement , the narrative isn’t market-moving, but we stand to be surprised. Eurozone Data We’ve just seen […]

Question Of The Day – Will The HK Bill Derail The US-China Trade Talks?

A quick update today but one that seems important. There is an intense debate on whether the US Senate, having passed the HK Human Rights and Democracy Bill, truly impacts and derails the US-China trade deal. Importantly, the bill now heads for a vote in the House, then onto Trump, who has 10 days to […]

Trading View – Long USDJPY On Daily Close Through 109.33 for 110.50/111.00.

Along with USDCNH, USDJPY has the strongest correlation with the US 10-year Treasury yield, which has moved from 1.43% in August to 1.97% (54 basis points) on 7 November. Taking USDJPY into 109.48. Having retreated a touch into 1.83% (taking USDJPY into 108.24), we’re seeing bond traders re-assess positioning. Should we see a closing upside […]

Traders Starting To Bravely Look Past The UK Election

European and US traders largely overlooked an increasingly ugly picture in HK, where the Hang Seng closed -2.6% and the CSI 300 -1.8%, and we saw the DAX closing -0.2% and the S&P 500 following with similar form. Asia should, therefore, welcome the lack of any real drawdown in US trade and we should see […]

Eyes On NZ In Week Ahead

There has been spluttering of news of note over the weekend, although the G10 FX open has been fairly sanguine, as should the futures open at 10am AEDT. A worsening of China’s producer inflation (-1.7% YoY), and Iran detailing they have come across oil fields with some 53 billion barrels shouldn’t cause too much angst. Consideration […]

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